Double Buy DIS and TNH - CAL Technicals

TNH

• Not sure if you've been following my TNH buy recommendations, April 11th and 26th, but the stock is up 27 odd points since the first time. I still think the old analysis is valid and the strong accumulation goes to show the validation of the idea. One of the reasons I've been quite bullish on, besides the ones mentioned in the links is the strength in TNH around Feb 27th the down day.
  
  
• If you peruse the historical prices, you see it falls 4 points on 27th, then it is snatched up quickly by institutions and has 2+ up days to follow. You see the rapid pace of money flow? This shows it was valuable one to watch.

DIS

Disney reported on May 8th so I'd like to mention a quick word.

• Media Networks benefited from stronger than expected results at Cable Networks, grew 11%, excluding the $85 mn in incremental deferral revenue. which offset weaker results at the Broadcasting segment, which included an estimated $20-$25mn in losses related to the Disney-branded MVNO.
  
  
• DIS has a significant opportunity over the long term to capture higher margin online advertising revenue across its vast array of branded content. Going forward higher margin online revenue could begin to have a positive impact on Disney’s operating margin and EPS.
  
  
• Digital media revenues are still in their infancy and are relatively small financial contribution for DIS but over the long term there are multiple platforms where the company can benefit from higher margin services, including across properties such as Disney.com, ABC.com and ESPN.com as well as from mobile content, online gaming, and movie downloads.
  
  
• This is more of a long-term investment

CAL

Let's start of with a 6 month chart. As you can see, there is a top like head and shoulders forming in CAL. It's no surprise that with oil bouncing of lows in Jan, the inverse relationship is working with quite a bit of perfection, resulting in CAL trending downwards. The right shoulder is forming and as you can see volume is not coming in.



On to a yearly chart. As you can see from box 1, there were about 3 above average volume days from September to December, which led to momentum towards the upside. Now, a similar formation is happening in 07, but reverse.



While I've been holding puts ever since the right shoulder 46 level, I'm going to be keep a very close eye on the 50-day level for CAL. Why? As evident by the chart, the 50-day level has lead to accumulation in the past. The same time last year, August, Oil started its downfall. Amaranth and lack of hurricanes, ring a bell?